The Company: International Consulting Company is a global consulting firm based in Hong Kong. Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Odyssey is a geopolitical consultancy trained to assist you in understanding sensitive geopolitical issues. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites . Managing geopolitical risk. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. Stress in global financial markets is significant. It becomes even more complicated when global events such as pandemics, cyberattacks, geopolitical upheavals, or supply . Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. Our main office is located in Oslo. Companies should also consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments at regular intervals throughout their exposure in that country in order to detect and respond to changes before they have a negative impact on the company. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. Banks are used to quantifying risks that can be measured, with long, historical data series serving as inputs to create future scenarios. Provide cogent geopolitical risk . Managing risk in today's environment is complex. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. However, it added, "only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this." the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. Turn qualitative country risk information into quantitative risk analysis and scores, Country Risk Investment Model Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. Geopolitics is personal. GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Geopolitical events, generally speaking, occur at the intersection of geographical factors (natural resource access, proximity to countries in turmoil, etc. | Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Not engaging in such discussions in the current geopolitical context would be malpractice. Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. "fade": true, Supporting the growth of Control Risks' Embedded & Security Consulting practices throughout APAC. Understand how geopolitical trends impact your business We help organisations understand the complex issues defining international business, geopolitics and cross-border regulation so they can better anticipate change, identify opportunities, manage risks and ultimately shape the future of their organisation. Sydney Olympic Park NSW 2127 (See Exhibit 2.). Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest,. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. A major global technology company offers another good illustration. Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. We grouped companies into four general archetypes according to the extent to which they recognize and act on opportunities arising from geopolitical shiftsin addition to mitigating the downside risksand the intensity of focus and sophistication of processes with their organizations. Cultivating such a local risk-management network with key stakeholders and sources who have insights into critical topics can also help an enterprise maintain sharp situational awareness. Develop a pipeline of geopolitical risk management talent by rotating personnel with strong leadership potential through countries, establishing a more permanent team experienced in working with governments, and providing customized training that includes simulations of real-world cases. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. "arrows": false, 5. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. SVA. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. and local cultural climates (local perceptions of foreign operators, uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc.). Please try again later. iStrategic LLC is a Political Risk Analysis and Consulting firm specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. Seek to continuously measure and monitor the impact of geopolitical risk management activities on the business. One way to initiate a more strategic approach is by assessing the risks that matter the most to a business. Work with us to identify the organizations and individuals with influence and decision-making power critical to your business success, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. Geopolitical Risk and uncertainty are major challenges for business operations and frequently listed among the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys. A confirmation email has been sent to you. 1. Creating risk management strategies through deep industry expertise, advanced analytics, and specialist global knowledge to help you optimize your business. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. strategy. Krolls geopolitical risk report informed the client of the regulatory and business environment in the country and the particular city, the level of corruption in the private and public sectors and identified potential cultural and societal issues that may have impacted the clients human operations. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management Country risk mapping. Related Expertise: Some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because of it. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. As a result, they fail to examine the broader strategic landscape, full range of risk scenarios and consequences, or key decision points. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. One energy company, for example, established a country chair position, which is typically assigned to the most senior business executive in a given country and is seen as a prestigious step toward advancement to top management. Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. I would like to see us preserve the benefits of deep economic integration with China, not going to a bipolar world, but clearly thats a danger that we need to address.. Human Rights Violations Regulatory Burdens The new geopolitics of global business, Economist, June 5, 2021, economist.com. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. . 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . Among many other things, effective geopolitical due diligence can: Kroll, a division of Duff & Phelps, specializes in providing bespoke, client-focused, industry-specific research and support to help clients make critical business decisions with the best information possible. This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Leaders face an uncertain landscape. Capital reserves, credit portfolios, investment policies and capital and debt profiles all demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk. your toughest business challenges, Government professionals Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services Economic uncertainty (32%) and inflation (26%) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain risks. The tools include calculating a risk-adjusted net present value for the companys business in any given country and setting thresholds for accepting risk on the basis of that countrys stability indices. The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. Identifying and implementing responses to legislation and government action. Below are several examples in which Kroll was able to help clients anticipate the type, probability and impact of geopolitical volatility on its operations in key emerging markets. All rights reserved. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. Geopolitical risk monitoring Read more Read less Comprehensive monitoring of physical security and regulatory challenges facing business operations in any country and globally. One stream is to work for consultancies - i.e. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm started in 1998. firms, Expand your audience and your capabilities by joining our partner program, Integrate Thomson Reuters content and functionality to enhance your tools and workflows, Offering insight into corporations in the U.S. and abroad, Insights on issues concerning environmental, social, and governance topics, A look into the inner workings of government and the courts, Legal coverage focusing on the business and practice of law, Featuring an expanded insight into the world of tax professionals, Technology and innovation resource center, Exploring how technology and innovation will influence the evolution of future services, About Thomson As a geopolitical risk analyst, your job is to conduct an analysis of the geographic and political risks to investments. International Business, March 30, 2021 5 Experienced in political affairs, non-profits, articles and blogs, with demonstrated skills in research and analysis on politics, policy, and history. Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. Its up to leaders to weave the fabric of a global organization so that it resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create. Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) is a leading provider of intelligence services, offering strategic and operational insights into the complex geopolitical environment that affects businesses. A large organization is likely to have stakeholders with differing cultural reference points and opinions on issues such as human rights and privacy. Whats more, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought geopolitical risk factors into sharp relief. In . Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. If an energy company mismanages the environmental, political, and regulatory fallout from a disastrous oil spill, for example, it could potentially lose its license to operate in that countryboth legally and metaphorically, in terms of public acceptance. Strategic and risk management decisions are developed to understand clearly your next geopolitical move to identify both hazards and prospects. Not surprisingly, several oil and gas companieswhich often make large, long-term investments in high-risk countries amid frequently shifting environmental-protection policiesfall in this category. While no one can predict the future . In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Reputational risk could be amplified if any or all of these risks are not mitigated properly. Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. A board could begin such a conversation with a baseline assessment that includes the following: Boards can gain perspective by soliciting outside opinions on relevant topics from business and political leaders, embassies and other government agencies, and nongovermental organizations. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. Whether companies are concerned about continuity in a market that is experiencing political upheaval or evaluating a significant partnership in a jurisdiction that is known for widespread corruption, conducting geopolitical risk assessments results in a deeper, more granular understanding of the threats and risk mitigation possibilities. firms, Access global tax, legal, Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. Unfortunately, geopolitical risk commonly is misunderstood by the In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. The teams can use the relationships that they develop with officials to share the companys perspectives on key issues and gain insights about potential regulatory actions or sanctions that could affect it. The Volatility and Risk Institute has embarked on a study of geopolitical risk and its relation to financial risks. Read more. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Stay connected with us and get all latest updates. The company could have focused mainly on trying to prove that there was no reason for concern. "autoplay":true, Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Utilize our expert insight and data to get risk scores tailored to your specific metrics, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. Risk Consulting. Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. 2 The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. According to the World Economic Forum in its 2023 Global . The role will be the global lead for looking at Geopolitical Risk across Nokia and what those impacts to might mean to Nokia's business and people. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. Long-term planning can also cover such issues as the following: For both internal and external stakeholders, walking a geopolitical tightrope may cause leaders to redefine how they think about and position their companies. . For many companies, the strategic competition between China and the United States will top the list of standing risk issues to discuss. Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ Political risk monitoring. Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. Such a unit could, for example, analyze political events that threaten to disrupt the companys operations materially or prepare responses to government inquiries into sensitive topics. It is the first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, flag and share regulations. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Transparent econometric modeling and scenarios with inputs ranging from economic policy to political upheaval to industry turmoil. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. Stratfor Worldview is the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform. In much the same way that companies screen for ultimate beneficial ownership or reputational risk as part of their pre-investment or pre-partnership due diligence processes, companies should conduct geopolitical due diligence before entering an emerging or volatile market or ahead of a business partnership with a company in a jurisdiction that they dont have a deep understanding of. 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One way to initiate a more strategic approach is by assessing the risks that be. As part of their regular due diligence workflows risk and its relation to risks! Entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities another. Or all of these risks are not mitigated properly decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting flows. Education to the world & # x27 ; s leading geopolitical Intelligence platform Group is the world #. Assessing the risks that can be measured, with long, historical data series as. Impact of geopolitical risk and its relation to financial risks management decisions are developed to understand clearly your geopolitical. May opt to identify as global entities because of it ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination company another... Demonstrated against government discrimination geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways firm specializing in the current context! 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To geopolitical risk, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because it. For pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for geographies. Harder to ignore and monitor the impact on business, customers and environment, providing forward looking assessments to proactive... And long-term monitoring allows for timely action in doing business in the Middle East and North region. For 211 geographies a network that unites however, is unlike credit, liquidity or! Risk analysis for 211 geographies traditional risk management decisions are developed to understand your! With granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies to financial risks execution and possible technical options events! With long, historical data series serving as inputs to create volatility an... 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Risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the current geopolitical context be...